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Mansemat

What if we won't make it?

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Hello

 

Even though there's (amidst the sheer amount of negativity and drama) a group of people who are overly positive about the outcome of this project I would like to raise the question that apparently hasn't been asked yet.

 

What's gonna happen if we don't get the required amount in 12 days? Are you lot going to continue development or search other means to re-do the funding?

 

I would ofcourse like to see this come to a happy ending but I'm reknown for my cynicism so I fear this is the first kickstarter I've followed that's gonna fail. And it sucks.

Id like to help but my financial means do not allow help in such matter (and no the "whats 1$ for ya" doesn't make sense - trust me) and I'm reluctant to apply for the 3D since well... I might not be good enough and you lot already have a 2D artist.

 

 

Anyhoo, what's gonna happen if a miracle doesn't??

 

 

Greets

 

 

 

PS I never uploaded that portrait avatar of mine here so why does it get that *puzzled*

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One thing some new people to Kickstarter do not realise is that there is often a big surge in funding during the last couple of days. Regular KS funders often use the "Remind me" button when browsing projects that take their interest rather than contributing off the bat. This often is so they don't over commit themselves or is used when the project is only of a casual interest rather than a must-fund. That Remind me button automatically sends out a email notification and reminder to the person 48 hours before the funding wraps. So there will be a significant last day surge. That period is also when some of the hardcore fans up their pledges to silly amounts just to make sure the project succeeds.

 

If the funding does fall through then the guys could create a new Kickstarter project at a later date with a lesser financial goal and source the remainder of the funding from a publisher? Or they could just go to a publisher for the whole fund? I imagine the reason why they would prefer this Kickstarter campaign to succeed is that they would guarantee development of the new game and be able to keep all royalities and rights to any new intellectual property they create. Unlike Space Quest where the IP was owned by the publisher Sierra Online who both funded development and published the games.

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I think with the amount of Kickstarter fatigue that's gelling among the on-line press outlets, this KS has a "now or never" air over it. However, I'm also confident that we will make it.

 

Following from what benrett said, look at what happened to the Republique Kickstarter. We just have to do what we can to get more people to see the light. :)

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Mansemat... Not to sound like a politician, which I'm not, but I don't accept the premise of your question. ;)

 

I have a feeling that, when we hit the last few days, even hours, there's going to be a mad rush... and the modest but decent number of backers we have will suddenly start finding loose, pledgeable change down the backs of their sofas. I predict it will be a tense but exciting time as we approach the finish line.

 

It ain't over yet!

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I'm all willing to go on the "we will make it" bandwagon but none of you really answered the true question (okay, sorry, didn't read that one guy's post - mea culpa and the excuse that i'm working at the same time. Maybe I just want to hear it from them upstairs themselves).

 

What, for whatever reason, all of a suddon, out of the blue, by total surprise the chaps from Andromeda only manage to get up to 499.042$ and this project won't be funded on a Kickstarter legal level. What, if such a calamity should even ever occur, will happen?

 

Will we go underground? Will they continue regardless? Etc

 

 

Ofcourse it aint over, ofcourse there's a surge at the end, ofcourse William Shattner and some other celebs can fund this stuff from their toilet (all they need to do is give money and demand to be voice-actor for the Andromedans under treat of their own demise.) And I do really want them to succeed even though their whole (unwritten) story is a bit... awkward.

 

Oh and coupons for Droids please, with Buckazoids for cross-over Sierrta (sonny bond's great-great-x4 grandson or a larry sexdoll - finally he gets all the ass he desired). No seriously, all this and more needs to happen so whats plan B, C, D and XR please.

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It's a fair question to ask, in my opinion. It may never come to it, but it would be interesting to know if the possibility has been considered.

 

Consider everything.

 

I doubt we'll get an answer until after the kickstarter has finished anyway. It would be ridiculous to even entertain the idea in public until they know one way or the other whether the campaign has been successful.

 

HOWEVER, the fear that it might not be successful should be a spur to get others to up their pledges and/or try and spread the word. It's a long weekend here in England, so hopefully I'll be able to do SOMETHING (even if it is minor in the grand scheme of things).

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When we were at 218k I was ready to accept this as a failure. It seemed hopeless to me at the time.

 

Today, I would bet money on this thing succeeding. There's potentially hundreds of thousands of spacequest fans who aren't even aware of this, and we just need to reach a tiny portion. With all the news ramping up, I think this will be a success.

 

The fact that the kickstarter experimental build has our high estimate at 10k above 500k, and the fact that this is from the makers of SPACE QUEST, not some random kickstarter project (it doesn't factor in brand popularity), I think shows that it's not a longshot at all.

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I'm enjoying the optimism, however for this to really gain momentum especially in the last days, serious media coverage is needed and so far I haven't seen anything and I'm starting to be a bit pessimistic about the whole thing. Does anyone know when we can expect all the articles and interviews to appear?

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I'm enjoying the optimism, however for this to really gain momentum especially in the last days, serious media coverage is needed and so far I haven't seen anything and I'm starting to be a bit pessimistic about the whole thing. Does anyone know when we can expect all the articles and interviews to appear?

 

http://www.spacequest.net/index.php/topic/383-press-mentions-of-spaceventure-two-guys-and-kickstarter/

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The kickstarter is going up :) I feel confident that it will make the goal! Like earlier posters said, you have to take into account that kickstarters always experience as surge in the final days. Also, if these alleged interviews ever finally start popping up on the web, that could give it a boost as well :)

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The Two Guys said in an interview what would happen: (courtesy to Christian Giegerich for the transcript)

 

Scott: What happenes if the Kickstarter doesn’t meet the 500 goal? Is the game over?“ Well, as far as Kickstarter is concerned, YEAH. It’s over. You guys and nobody who donated money gets charged. So we have to go and think about another way to go about it. And we haven’t really thought that far ahead. We haven’t really considered what would happen if we wouldn’t meet our goal. But... there’s a possibility. We have a lot of games and a lot of fans who have been pouring out their pockets and their hearts into games and we may have come at a bad time. It’s hard to tell. We’re doing our best. We really want to make something that you guys like. We really know we have some really loyal fans and we have some oft he best fans in the world and if we can’t make a game for you guys it’s going to hurt a lot. I mean I’m not just talking about the fact that we if indeed we were to fail at Kickstarter that would be bad. It would hurt a lot not to make another game because Mark and I love to do it ever since we gotten back in touch with each other. You know, it’s been eating away at us. We have this thing that we love to do together and it would be devestating, honestly. I mean just from a personal standpoint. I do not even think about Kickstarter and so on. We wanna do this. I dunno. It’s just something we were meant to do.

 

Mark: No. If Kickstarter doesn’t work we will definately try some other avenue. And/or some other project. I mean there’s plenty of game ideas moving around and so... if it’s not a space adventure, it will be something else.

 

 

My personal feelings: At one point, right before the temp media blackout, and during, I thought there was no chance. I admittedly was feeling cynical at the time. I'm pretty hopeful right now, though.

 

At the end of the day, wishing and worrying doesn't do much good, we just have to get the word out.

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I'm all willing to go on the "we will make it" bandwagon but none of you really answered the true question (okay, sorry, didn't read that one guy's post - mea culpa and the excuse that i'm working at the same time. Maybe I just want to hear it from them upstairs themselves).

 

What, for whatever reason, all of a suddon, out of the blue, by total surprise the chaps from Andromeda only manage to get up to 499.042$ and this project won't be funded on a Kickstarter legal level. What, if such a calamity should even ever occur, will happen?

Well that just out of reach figure of $499,042 would never happen. Like I said previously there would be a number of dedicated hardcore fans who would up their pledges at the last moment to make sure it goes through. You maybe underestimating the pull of a closing kickstarter, it is like an auction. Some people get caught up in the excitement without thinking about the amounts they are bidding.

 

If the kickstarter does fall through I think they could go to a publisher. Replay Games (http://www.replaygamesinc.com/) successfully funded the remake of Leisure Suit Larry earlier in the month on Kickstarter (http://www.kickstart...arry-come-again). Now these guys not only acquired the license and IP for Larry but also managed to convince Al Lowe the IP creator to work on the project. Telltale Games (http://www.telltalegames.com/) also have a habbit of using existing IP to create contemporary adventure games. So there are options, it just means that if the 2 guys use a 3rd party publisher/developer the project will take longer as there will be a need for contract negotiations etc and the 2 guys will loose some control. I very much doubt they would just give up and walk away.

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Even though I am hopeful that this project will make it, I am a little concerned that the LSL remake reached its halfway point with about 20 days before its deadline, and we've reached our halfway point with less than two weeks left.

 

Still, I decided to double my pledge and make an announcement about this event on that one site I used to update a lot a few years ago, hoping that there's still a person or two on its RSS feed that might not have heard the news about this yet.

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Even though I am hopeful that this project will make it, I am a little concerned that the LSL remake reached its halfway point with about 20 days before its deadline, and we've reached our halfway point with less than two weeks left.

 

LSL promised boobs right from the get-go. The SpaceVenture "female protagonist" thing didn't really hit until last week. ;)

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That statement from the Andromedans basically states they will do "something else" gamewise... I hope they don't.

 

I don't mind the female protagonist and it might even get interesting. Plus yeah, boobs... Spaceballs. In fact I don't mind anything really and as I'm thinking of what would be interesting there's a shitload of stuff I'd like to add to it.

 

Time will tell what and if... but this shouldn't be the first that fails even though (in my opinion) the two have been unfortunate in how they deliver things. The piracy thing really needed that video for it to be understood as irony/sarcasm/funny stuff.

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While the positivity on here is admirable, I'm not quite so optimistic. I'm not saying it won't happen, maybe call me a very cautious optimist. Today was a slow day (6,464) in terms of the average daily pledges we need to reach the goal. And while a surge in pledges is almost sure to happen at the end, it's still a bit improbable it will be enough to lift the project, if it does not reach near the averages it needs to, to reach the goal. Republique was something of an anomaly, which had not been precedented or replicated yet, so I wish people would stop using it as "proof" that this will make it. For one Republique had a professional advertising company behind it, as well, it had a lot more specifics and even gameplay footage in it's pitch. For the numbers side of things, consider:

As of 9:15pm (pst), we are at 283,611 of 500,000

 

We need 216,389 in 9 days (no longer 10, as it will skew the average) so we need an average of $24,043 per day.

 

To compensate for the anticipated 'surge', consider:

Final surge statistics (final 3 days):

 

low: Jane Jenson

1 - 14,352

2 - 22,605

3 - 28,983

Total - 65,940

avg: 21,980

 

mid: Larry

1 - 29,382

2 - 36,083

3 - 31,233

Total - 96,698

avg: 32,232

 

high: Republique

1 - 53,064

2 - 84,882

3 - 118,491

Total - 256,437

avg: 85,479

 

In terms of probability statistics you could argue a lot of things, different audiences (# of adventure genre fans, vs stealth 3d fans), visibility to public, current pledgers ability to raise pledges, concurrent campaigns competing (ie. Tex Murphy, some backers may overlap but certainly they will be pledging more for one vs the other), etc, but..... these numbers will at least give us a good low to high range for this surge, to actually quantify an estimate rather than refer to it as some mythological, subjective term to just compensate for anything we may be lacking by the time we reach those last 3 days.

 

Let's average those 3 totals to get: 139,691 (estimated surge value, keep in mind the Republique high skews the average a bit), the last 3 days will need to avg. 46,563 / day

 

For that to be sufficient we need to have a total of 360,309 in 6 days, (subtract 'current' total), which is 76,698 in addition to what we have, that's an avg. 12,783 / day, which seems doable, certainly better than 24,043, however also relies on a much larger 'surge' than both Larry and Morpheus.

 

Sorry if thats mind numbing, and it's a complete guesstimation and most likely will not occur this way, but I think gives us some kind of projection of what we need to accomplish in the next 9 days. It's daunting for sure, not completely out of the rhealm of possibility, but the last 2 days have seen a 6k average, which certainly will not help us reach that 12.7K average we need to hedge our bets on a 140k est. surge. And personally I'd like to see this greatly exceed 500k, however at this point I'd be happy if we just made the minimum.

If anyone sees anything wrong w/ the math here, it's basic averaging, let me know. Or if someone has a better way to make a projection or estimation, please share. I'm really hoping we can do this!

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If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen. However, we have nine days left. The most important thing is to tell as many people as you know to pledge. Look at the number of people who pledged to those projects.

 

Larry: 14,000

Republique: 11,000

Jane Jenson: 5,836

 

We are below all of those. Again, spreading the word in the last several days is the most important thing we can do. Stay positive! Keep spreading the word!

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I've just gone over and tripled my pledge, but I imagine at this point, a lot of potential backers are waiting for something more concrete on this game. I imagine the pledges really upped on Pinkerton Road once the plot and characters of Moebius were revealed. As of where on SpaceVenture, everything about the game is very obscure, and that browser game can be very misleading for newcomers. Tim Schafer got lucky overnight on the grounds that he was the first to begin a Kickstarter project, but street cred can only fan-fund games for so long. It would be easier for word-of-mouth to spread if the gaming sites actually had a game to talk about.

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Datadog: There is no game right now. Other kickstarter projects are similar to this: until they get kickstarter funding the project hasn't really started yet... there's no funding.

 

Since this is a kickstarter project to see if they can raise the funds to start a game project: Right now they're just bouncing ideas around, getting feedback from fans, and hoping that this project gets greenlit!

 

The general idea is: You are supposed to find out about the games that the Two Guys from Andromeda did in the past. Then you are told that they are making a new game, and have some great ideas, but it won't be "Space Quest 7".

 

Knowing this, they've reached $300K, and should reach their goal. They have so many backers because we know the work the Two Guys do and would like to see a new adventure game.

 

If you too would like to see a new adventure game from the Two Guys, you can back their project! If you're waiting for 'more information', it's just brainstorming right now as far as I can tell. Faith in the project's creators!*

 

(P.S. I know you tripled your own pledge, but this is what I tell other people who have not pledged.)

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