While the positivity on here is admirable, I'm not quite so optimistic. I'm not saying it won't happen, maybe call me a very cautious optimist. Today was a slow day (6,464) in terms of the average daily pledges we need to reach the goal. And while a surge in pledges is almost sure to happen at the end, it's still a bit improbable it will be enough to lift the project, if it does not reach near the averages it needs to, to reach the goal. Republique was something of an anomaly, which had not been precedented or replicated yet, so I wish people would stop using it as "proof" that this will make it. For one Republique had a professional advertising company behind it, as well, it had a lot more specifics and even gameplay footage in it's pitch. For the numbers side of things, consider:
As of 9:15pm (pst), we are at 283,611 of 500,000
We need 216,389 in 9 days (no longer 10, as it will skew the average) so we need an average of $24,043 per day.
To compensate for the anticipated 'surge', consider:
Final surge statistics (final 3 days):
low: Jane Jenson
1 - 14,352
2 - 22,605
3 - 28,983
Total - 65,940
1 - 29,382
2 - 36,083
3 - 31,233
Total - 96,698
1 - 53,064
2 - 84,882
3 - 118,491
Total - 256,437
In terms of probability statistics you could argue a lot of things, different audiences (# of adventure genre fans, vs stealth 3d fans), visibility to public, current pledgers ability to raise pledges, concurrent campaigns competing (ie. Tex Murphy, some backers may overlap but certainly they will be pledging more for one vs the other), etc, but..... these numbers will at least give us a good low to high range for this surge, to actually quantify an estimate rather than refer to it as some mythological, subjective term to just compensate for anything we may be lacking by the time we reach those last 3 days.
Let's average those 3 totals to get: 139,691 (estimated surge value, keep in mind the Republique high skews the average a bit), the last 3 days will need to avg. 46,563 / day
For that to be sufficient we need to have a total of 360,309 in 6 days, (subtract 'current' total), which is 76,698 in addition to what we have, that's an avg. 12,783 / day, which seems doable, certainly better than 24,043, however also relies on a much larger 'surge' than both Larry and Morpheus.
Sorry if thats mind numbing, and it's a complete guesstimation and most likely will not occur this way, but I think gives us some kind of projection of what we need to accomplish in the next 9 days. It's daunting for sure, not completely out of the rhealm of possibility, but the last 2 days have seen a 6k average, which certainly will not help us reach that 12.7K average we need to hedge our bets on a 140k est. surge. And personally I'd like to see this greatly exceed 500k, however at this point I'd be happy if we just made the minimum.
If anyone sees anything wrong w/ the math here, it's basic averaging, let me know. Or if someone has a better way to make a projection or estimation, please share. I'm really hoping we can do this!